Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
